Government Bonds and Interest Rate Expectations
Von der Redaktion Financial World News · Pädagogische Erklärung · So beziehen wir Renditen
Forwards and the front end of each curve are a live poll of BoE, Fed, ECB and SNB paths.
Die vollständige Fassung dieses Leitfadens ist auf Englisch. Titel, Kurzfassung und Navigation sind in Ihrer Sprache, damit Sie entscheiden können, ob Sie weiterlesen.
Government Bonds and Interest Rate Expectations — the mechanics
You do not need a crystal ball; the 2-year yield is the crystal ball. When it disagrees with newspaper forecasts, the market is telling you the consensus trade. That consensus is often wrong — but it is what prices are set from.
The 2-year yield is the packed-in path of policy. If it sits below overnight, the market is pricing cuts. That price can be wrong; it is still the price.
Forwards are not promises. They are the breakeven path. Beating them means a different view of the BoE, Fed, ECB or SNB.
Newspaper forecasts that ignore the 2-year are entertainment. Start from the curve we date on the board.
Official sources (Comparisons)
Primary statistics and prospectuses for Comparisons are published by the issuer, not by this newsroom. The labelled links at the end of this page go to those official sites (DMO, TreasuryDirect, Finanzagentur, MEF, AFT, SNB or ECB as relevant).
Our live board is a teaching overlay: dated prints, named sources, estimated ISIN lines. It is not a replacement for the issuer’s calendar.
Die wichtigsten Punkte
- The 2-year yield is the packed-in path of policy.
- Prices and yields change. When this site quotes them, it dates them on the live board.
- Credit of a G7 government in its own currency is not the same as a stable screen price, and not the same as a bank deposit.
FAQ
- Can I beat the forwards?
- Only if your forecast is better than the packed-in path. Most investors are better matching duration to a need than outguessing the FOMC.